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Titan Machinery (TITN) – short

September 9th, 2008 at 12:46 am » Comments (0)

Titan Machinery is a distributor/retailer of new and used agricultural and construction equipment in the Midwest. They currently own 48 stores with the majority of sales occurring in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota. They recently were brought public in December 2007 by Craig Hallum Capital and Robert W. Baird. Since then, the shares [...]



Garmin (GRMN) – Navigating to nowhere

August 12th, 2008 at 1:46 pm » Comments (0)

I am currently short GRMN. I believe that while the current years earnings/revenues may be achievable, the company is headed down the wrong path in the wrong industry.
Garmin trades at about 10x consensus FY08 expectations of $3.95. Many will argue that this is simply too cheap for a company with such promising growth prospects and [...]



Update

July 31st, 2008 at 11:46 am » Comments (0)

I have been long absent. The SWIR and NVTL stories have played themselves out. They are both losing their PC OEM businesses and not finding replacement revenues fast enough. They’ve gotten extremely cheap if you exclude cash balances. I am no longer short either at these levels.
I am still long AWI as it continues to [...]



Hibbett Sports (HIBB) – quick short of the day

January 14th, 2008 at 10:07 pm » Comments (0)

I shorted some HIBB after-hours at $12.45. It closed at $15.96 so it was down almost 25% already. Why on earth would I chase it? for a few reasons:
1. They cut their fourth quarter forecast to 20-26c from 36-44c
2. They cut their comp sales forecast from up mid-single digits to down mid-single digits
3. Companies that [...]



Sandisk (SNDK) – expectations too high, setting up for disaster

January 13th, 2008 at 3:24 pm » Comments (0)

I’m posting this article that I had begun writing at the end of December while I was out of the country. After what the market has done recently, SNDK is a full 20% lower in stock price but I think that some of the comments I made are still relevant so I am posting my [...]



Armstrong Worldwide (AWI) – A housing-related stock with upside?

December 16th, 2007 at 6:57 pm » Comments (1)

    Armstrong Worldwide is my single favorite idea at the moment.
Armstrong is an industrial company that specializes in flooring and ceiling products. If you’ve ever seen hardwood flooring at Home Depot, you’ve seen the Armstrong brand. Armstrong came out of bankruptcy late last year after settling asbestos litigation. As a condition to re-emerge, the company [...]



Novatel and Sierra Wireless (NVTL, SWIR) – game over

December 16th, 2007 at 4:05 pm » Comments (6)

NVTL and SWIR produce wireless datacards, usb modems, and embedded wireless modules in PCs to connect to carrier networks. They have enjoyed favorable pricing and strong margins as their stocks have run up over the last year. The bear case had always been that larger competitors would enter the market and price them out. [...]